Wezen-Ball MLB Predictions Contest Update

I know, I still owe everybody Tater Trot Tracker times for the last two days of the season (including big home runs like the one Buster Posey hit Sunday afternoon). I had a very busy weekend (including my first trip to Lambeau Field and my first NFL game yesterday) and I have a couple of busy nights ahead – including tonight’s on-a-special-night podcast with Bill and The Common Man from Platoon Advantage. Hopefully, I’ll be able to get these last two Tater Trot Tracker posts up tonight, but they might just have to wait until Wednesday or Thursday. I’m sorry for that.

One thing I didn’t want to wait any longer to put up – because we’ve already waited way too long to see it – is an update on the predictions contest I ran at the start of the season. If you remember, back in March/April, I asked anybody interested to feel out my MLB Predictions form to enter into the contest. The winner at the end of the season would get 2 Free Tickets to any 2011 baseball game*!

(*Actually, a $30 gift certificate to either MLB.com or the team of their choice, which should be theoretically enough for two tickets.)

The form asked for division finishes, team victories, playoff participants, and MVP/Cy Young/ROY award results. Point values would be assigned for the accuracy of each of these predictions.

I’ve been meaning to update everyone on the contest all year, but, since the leaderboard was based so much on team victories at the end of the season, I wasn’t sure what to do. And then, as the season started to wrap up, I got too busy to tally the points. I’m making up for that now.

To see the leaderboard and everybody’s full predictions, side-by-side, click here.

(Click “Read More” to continue reading.)

When compiling the leaderboard, I had to remove a few sets of predictions for incompleteness. I also had to clean up some of the predictions – for example, if you picked Detroit to finish second and Chicago to finish third in the Central but put Chicago in as the Wild Card, I adjusted that and counted Detroit as the Wild Card instead. If you look through the leaderboard and can’t find yourself, or you don’t like the interpretation I made, please let me know. You can see the original predictions sheet here.

For those who don’t want to click through, the top five entries so far are (and remember, we still have the playoffs and post-season awards to get through):

Leaderboard, through end of regular season
1. Sean (Bucco Fever), 67 Pts.
1. Zach Sanders (Fangraphs), 67 Pts.
3. Daniel (Camden Crazies), 62 Pts.
4. Steve (Beadlemaniacs), 58 Pts.
5. Mark (Sabermetric Emotionalist/It’s About the Money), 56 Pts.

You’re good ol’ host is smack dab in the middle with 51 points. The lowest scoring predictions are all in the 30s. And, for those wondering, a quick refresher on the rules to the Predictions Contest:

The scoring will be as follows:

  • For correct predictions of teams finishing 3rd place or worse: 1 pt
  • For correctly predicting 1st or 2nd place finishers (even if flip-flopped): 3 pts
  • For correctly predicting the 1st place team: 3 pts (in addition to the previous 3 pts)
  • For exact predictions of team wins: 5 pts
  • For predictions within 2 victories (plus or minus) of the actual finish: 2 pts
  • For correct Wild Card participant predictions: 2 pts
  • For correct LCS participant predictions: 3 pts
  • For correct WS participant predictions: 3 pts
  • For correct WS winner predictions: 3 pts
  • For correct award winner predictions: 3 pts

Now that I have all of the predictions into an easy-to-update grid (and now that the standings might change on a weekly basis), I’ll be updating the leaderboard as each playoff series is finished. I’ll post the new leaders here on the main page.

One more thing: for the “Potential Points” column, I added up all the points possible that an entry has remaining. If someone chose the Cardinals to win the World Series, for example, that person would get zero points for each playoff round he had the Cards winning. The award voting I was a bit subjective in, assuming that a player like Alcides Escobar has no chance at the Rookie of the Year. I could obviously be wrong on some of those opinions; we’ll deal with that road when we come to it.

So how about it? How well did you do? And what predictions are you most proud of? Most embarrassed by? Let’s hear it.

Larry Granillo

About Larry Granillo

Larry Granillo has been writing Wezen Ball since 2008 and has dealt with such touchy topics as Charlie Brown's baseball stats and Ferris Bueller's day off. In 2010, he got the bright idea to time every home run trot in baseball; he has been missing ever since.