Continuing my involvement with the Baseball Bloggers Association and the BBA Awards, here is my ballot for the Cy Young Award.

My official ballot as a "General" blog will be cast for the American League, but, in the interest of completeness, I'll list a National League ballot as well.

American League Cy Young Award*

1. Zack Greinke, KC
2. Felix Hernandez, Sea
3. Roy Halladay, Tor

Greinke is about as slam dunk of a decision that you can possibly have. He dominated the AL in every aspect of the game, and hardly gave anyone room to breathe. There's some talk about this being one of the greatest seasons ever. I don't think I quite agree with that (those mid-90s Maddux seasons and late-90s Pedro seasons were clearly better, for example), but I can understand the sentiment. The fact that he did it toiling away in Kansas City, with one of the worst defenses ever assembled behind him, is unbelievable.

And, as good as Greinke was, King Felix in Seattle was nearly as good. I'd go into the stats with these two, but I don't think I'd be saying anything you haven't read in a dozen other places. These two are outstanding pitchers, and it's literally exciting to consider how young they are (Greinke turns 26 this week, Hernandez will be 24 at the start of next season). And then there's Doc Halladay, still one of the best pitchers in baseball. If he wasn't competing against two of the best pitching performances of the decade, he'd be practically a shoo-in for the award. As it is, he'll have to settle for third and our appreciation.

(click "Read More" to continue)

National League Cy Young Award

1. Tim Lincecum, SF
2. Javier Vazquez, Atl
3. Dan Haren, Ari

The NL is a little harder than the AL, but in a good way. Besides the three named here, there are a few others who can be legitimately considered for the award (Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright to name two). I have to go with Lincecum, though. The kid is a strikeout machine, and his other stats (walks, hits, home runs, etc) are all outstanding. I know it seems like we should probably give it to someone else, considering that he won the award last year, but I don't know who was a better pitcher than him this year.

Vazquez put up a very quietly outstanding season in Atlanta. His record may seem a little pedestrian (15-10), but you can hardly fault the guy for it. Like Lincecum, there is just nothing he did wrong this year - he just didn't do it as right as Timmy. Haren started out the season nearly as strongly as Greinke, but his luster seemed to fade as the season progressed. It must be a product of playing in Arizona, because I can't find anything wrong with his stats. He didn't strike out quite as many batters as Lincecum, but he did allow fewer walks. His only downfall was a slightly elevated number of home runs, but, when you allow as few baserunners as he did, you can get away with that.

Let me know what you think of the picks below. I'm sorry for the lack of hardcore stats but, if you're truly interested in them (and haven't seen them everywhere else), I'm prepared to bring them out.

Comments (9)

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written by Ron R, October 19, 2009

How do neither Carpenter or Wainwright make the top 3?

This might be the point where we tell the statistics to shut up and actually look at who was the best. The numbers (any of them) don't always tell the truth.

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written by lar @ wezen-ball, October 19, 2009

I could easily put Carpenter at number 3, but I thought Haren was just as good, just more off-the-radar. I wanted to give him a little acknowledgment.

Personally, I think my choices actually reflect your philosophy of "tell the statistics to shut up and actually look at who was the best." With Lincecum, Vazquez, and Haren, it's the stats that actually obscure how good they are. I've seen enough Carpenter and Lincecum starts to know that Timmy is the better pitcher (though Carpenter is terrific, too).

Basically, I think the top 5 is a pretty fluid group this year, and no one's top 3 would shock me. I honestly believe Timmy deserves the Cy, but I won't be too upset if it's Carp or Haren or Vazquez (which is why I cast my "official" vote for the AL)

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written by heyblue, October 20, 2009

I agree that it's a tossup between Lincecum and Carpenter for NL Cy Young, but neither Vazquez nor Haren were nearly as good as Carpenter or Wainwright this year. They both had good years, but if you're voting for them to give them "a little acknowledgment" then you're making a political statement, not casting votes for the 2nd and 3rd best pitcher in the league this year.

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written by lar @ wezen-ball, October 20, 2009

I see what you're saying, but I don't think Carpenter was that much better than Vazquez and Haren. His ERA was lower certainly, and he pitched brilliantly (I saw two of those gems, if I remember correctly), but he's not as clear-cut as you make him sound. Both Haren and Vazquez struck out many, many more batters and, when you look at their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), they come out almost evenly (2.77 for Vazquez, 2.78 for Carp and 3.23 for Haren). Haren's FIP is higher, but that's almost certainly due to his penchant for the long-ball. His WHIP and strikeout rate make up the difference in my mind.

But I'm not saying I'm 100% correct. I understand your point about making a political statement, and maybe I was wrong about Haren vs. Carp, but I didn't make it for "political" reasons. When the 3/4/5 choices are all essentially even in your mind, then you have to end up introducing some subjectivity to make the decision, and that is what happened here.

Maybe I should've picked Carp over Haren, but, in my mind, they were close enough for me to choose either...

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written by heyblue, October 21, 2009

The starting pitcher's job is to keep the opposing team from scoring runs and Carpenter did that better than anyone in the NL this year. Vazquez and Haren were 8th and 10th respectively in ERA+. Carpenter's ERA+ this year was 185! Since 1994, the only pitchers who have had a higher ERA+ (besides Greinke who did it this year) are Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux.

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written by lar @ wezen-ball, October 21, 2009

Very true, and I like ERA+ very much.

My only counter is that, though you say "the starting pitcher's job is to keep the opposing team from scoring runs", it should actually read "the starting pitcher's job is to work in conjunction with his defense to keep the opposing team from scoring runs." As I'm sure you know, a pitcher can only control so much of an at-bat - once that ball is put in play, it's up to his defense to make it right. FIP tries to account for this by giving us the pitcher's ERA independent of the defense. The pitcher only has complete control of an at-bat if it results in a strikeout, walk, or home run, and that's what FIP measures. In that regard, Carpenter and Vazquez are perfectly even. Haren's a little behind, I admit.

Now maybe I dove into the advanced stats a little too much on this one (and maybe I did let a little too much subjectivity into the Haren pick), but it wasn't because I was trying to get too fancy or anything. As Ron said above, sometimes you have to "tell the statistics to shut up and actually look at who was the best". When I do that, I see Carpenter, Haren, and Vazquez all having almost-identically excellent years - and it's nice to see that most of the advanced stats agree.

That's my reasoning, for what it's worth...

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written by heyblue, October 21, 2009

I disagree and I think FIP is severely flawed with regard to extreme Ground Ball pitchers like Carpenter. Any ball in play is treated the same in FIP. Vazquez's BIP are likely a lot of line drives, Carpenter's are likely a lot of weak grounders. Very different types of balls in play, and the results are reflected in the number of runs that end up getting scored. Carpenter had a better year than Vazquez, and it's not close.

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2nd place?
written by heyblue, November 19, 2009

Apparently Keith Law agrees with you that Vazquez was the 2nd best pitcher in the NL this year.

I still think that's absolutely ridiculous. There's a great debate over on BBTF about it, too.

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written by lar @ wezen-ball, November 19, 2009

You know, I don't think I know what I'd put if I were to vote today. I might still go with Vazquez and Haren, but I could also see myself choosing Carpenter. It's hard to say... it depends on how analytical my mind feels that day, I think.

It's like the showdown between the Dread Pirate Roberts and Vizzini - exactly how many rounds of logic will I let myself go before making a decision...

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